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Opportunities for Stronger and Sustainable Postpandemic Growth
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Opportunities for Stronger and Sustainable Postpandemic Growth

2021 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report

Coordinated by

  • Eduardo Cavallo & Andrew Powell
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Highlights
  • Latin America and the Caribbean was hard hit by COVID-19. The 7.4% loss of GDP was the largest on record in a single year, 26 million jobs were lost and (extreme and moderate) poverty is expected to rise by about 5 percentage points of the population. Growth in 2021 could be as low as 0.8% if vaccine roll-out is delayed or mutations prove to be vaccine resistant. But in a positive scenario of higher world growth, the region could grow as much as 5.2%. In a central scenario growth would be around 4.1%.
  • The average fiscal package to address the crisis was 8.5% of GDP and deficits increased by an average of 5.3% of GDP in 2020. Public debt increased from 58% of GDP in 2019 to 72% in 2020 and could continue to rise to 76% by 2023. However, the trajectory is highly dependent on growth and fiscal policy.
  • Governments should take action to ensure fiscal, monetary, and financial sustainability. They should also implement a set of urgent reforms to improve fiscal outcomes and boost growth by assisting viable firms, helping workers find formal jobs in the face of reallocation, improving connectivity, implementing a plan towards faster digitalization, and investing in sustainable infrastructure. These measures will help boost productivity, spur growth, and achieve ambitious climate goals.
2021 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report: Opportunities for Stronger and Sustainable Postpandemic Growth

The year 2020 will be remembered as one of the most challenging in modern history. Latin America and the Caribbean lost 7.4% of GDP, the largest drop on record in a single year. The region is expected to recover in 2021 but faces a hazardous time ahead. Most countries will require some type of adjustment to maintain fiscal sustainability. While the way forward will be challenging, this report not only details the risks but also outlines a set of policies that should help countries realize a stronger recovery, not just to the low growth rates of the pre-pandemic period, but to higher rates of growth that will benefit all, with more efficient public policies, higher productivity in the private sector, and more sustainable economies.

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Date:
176 pages
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  • English epub ( Downloads)
DOI
  • http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003107
Notícias

Latin America to Rebound From Worst Recession in Two Centuries

2021-03-20
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-20/latin-america-to-rebound-fro…

Países de América Latina urgen reformas fiscales para recuperarse tras el COVID, seguirán débiles: BID

2021-03-20
https://es-us.noticias.yahoo.com/pa%C3%ADses-am%C3%A9rica-latina-urgen-reformas…

Otro 'shock' pandémico bajaría la recuperación regional a 0,8% en 2021

2021-03-20
https://www.portafolio.co/economia/otro-shock-pandemico-bajaria-la-recuperacion…

Brasil deve crescer menos que outros latinos ate 2023, diz BID

2021-03-20
https://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,brasil-deve-crescer-menos-que-ou…

El BID advierte de que sin reformas económicas no habrá recuperación en América Latina

2021-03-20
https://elpais.com/economia/2021-03-20/el-bid-advierte-de-que-sin-reformas-no-h…

Latinoamérica necesita reformas fiscales urgentes para evitar cicatrices graves por COVID, señala el BID

2021-03-21
https://gestion.pe/mundo/latinoamerica-necesita-reformas-fiscales-urgentes-para…

Latinoamérica urge reformas urgentes para evitar cicatrices graves por covid

2021-03-20
https://www.swissinfo.ch/spa/bid-asamblea--previsi%C3%B3n-_latinoam%C3%A9rica-u…

BID pronostica difícil recuperación económica de Latinoamérica tras pandemia

2021-03-20
https://www.swissinfo.ch/spa/bid-pronostica-dif%C3%ADcil-recuperaci%C3%B3n-econ…

BID alerta que países da América Latina precisam de reformas fiscais para recuperar a economia

2021-03-20
https://noticias.r7.com/jr-na-tv/videos/bid-alerta-que-paises-da-america-latina…

América Latina se recuperará de su peor recesión en dos siglos, afirma el BID

2021-03-22
https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/economia/america-latina-se-recuperara-de-su-peo…

“América Latina se recuperará de su peor recesión en dos siglos”: BID

2021-03-22
https://www.elespectador.com/noticias/economia/america-latina-se-recuperara-de-…

La economía de América Latina se contrajo un 7,4% en 2020, el peor dato en dos siglos, según el BID

2021-03-22
https://americaeconomica.com/noticia/31059/economia/la-economia-de-america-lati…

“Reforma fiscal es necesaria para la reactivación”

2021-03-22
https://www.lanacion.com.co/reforma-fiscal-es-necesaria-para-la-reactivacion/

Reforma fiscal y vacunación exitosa, clave para la recuperación económica

2021-03-22
https://www.laopinion.com.co/politica/reforma-fiscal-y-vacunacion-exitosa-clave…

Infographics

2021 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report - Drop in GDP
2021 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report - Negative Growth
3 - 2021 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report - Positive Growth
2021 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report - Opportunities



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Meet the Editors
Eduardo Cavallo

Eduardo Cavallo

Eduardo Cavallo é economista principal do Departamento de Pesquisa do BID. Ele possui doutorado em Políticas Públicas e MPP pela Universidade de Harvard, e Bacharel em Economia pela Universidade de San Andrés (UdeSA) em Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Andrew Powell

Andrew Powell

Andrew Powell é assessor principal do Departamento de Pesquisa do BID. Ele é formado, MPhil e DPhil (PhD) pela Universidade de Oxford.