The novel coronavirus is taking a huge toll across the world, and governments in Latin America and the Caribbean are right to take aggressive measures to save lives. Within a matter of weeks, the macroeconomic outlook for the region has changed dramatically. Financing costs have risen, commodities fallen, and large losses of GDP now seem unavoidable. However, the self-imposed partial closure of the economy is anything but a normal recession, and typical countercyclical demand management, both fiscal and monetary, is likely to be inconducive. The 2020 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report provides a diagnosis of this rapidly changing environment and proposes policy recommendations aimed to bring relief, maintain economic stability, and keep the core of the economy intact.
The Union Journal: The Latin American economy will contract between 1.8% and 5.5% this year due to the advance of the pandemic
El País: La economía latinoamericana se contraerá entre un 1,8% y un 5,5% este año por el avance de la pandemia
Infobae: América Latina sufrirá una contracción de hasta 5,5% del PIB en el 2020 debido al coronavirus, según datos del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo
La Metro Noticias: Informe BID propone políticas económicas para ayudar a los países a superar fuerte contracción
Noticias Caracol: Por el coronavirus, economía en América Latina se contraerá: ¿qué pasará en Colombia?
Country Coronavirus Briefs
Together with the 2020 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report, the IDB is releasing a series of country briefs that analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the countries of the region. Please click here to access them.
2019 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report
This report analyzes the potential consequences for the region of selected negative external shocks. It considers how countries can strengthen macroeconomic policy frameworks to mitigate these events and the monetary, fiscal, and debt management policy choices available. However, it also considers opportunities. More and better-targeted infrastructure investments can enhance growth prospects. And while public investment is constrained by tight budgets, the window of opportunity to pursue private financing to boost investments remains open as interest rates are still relatively low.
2018 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report
The 2018 Macroeconomic Report, A Mandate to Grow, revisits the growth debate that has been raging in the region for the past half century. Viewing the debate from this long-term perspective allows for a focus on the structural factors that have prevented Latin America and the Caribbean from reaching the growth potential required to keep pace with faster growing regions and to fulfill the aspirations of its population.
2017 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report
The 2017 Macroreport considers recent developments in the global economy and how they may affect Latin America and the Caribbean. It reviews how countries are adapting to external conditions and how those policies may be improved. This year, the report focuses particularly on deeper and smarter regional integration as an attractive route to boost productivity and growth.
2016 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report
The commodities boom that once buoyed the region’s economies is over, and countries have less fiscal space to undertake counter-cyclical policies than they did during the global financial crisis. This year’s Latin American and Caribbean Macro Report surveys the challenges facing the region in a new economic era and offers guidance on how policymakers can reduce long-term risks in a period of lower growth.
2015 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report
The 2015 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report argues that the region is in the midst of a labyrinth and must navigate several global and domestic obstacles—including lower commodity prices and new types of financial risks—to ensure strong and sustainable growth. The report suggests that many countries must make fiscal adjustments to avoid higher debt without compromising the significant social gains of recent years, and details both the types and speed of policies that may be adopted.
2014 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report
Monetary normalization may be a chronicle foretold, but countries still have the power to influence the outcome for their own economies. This report focuses on the risks Latin American and Caribbean countries face and how they can reduce vulnerabilities and enhance opportunities.
2013 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report
Global growth projections have waned since last year and growth may be suppressed below potential for several years to come. Lower global growth will, all things being equal, imply lower growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. At the same time, clear limits to the potential use of monetary and fiscal policy measures pose another constraint. Consequently, countries should consider further structural reform measures to enhance economic prospects and to escape suppressed global growth.
2012 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report
This report details the divergent paths that the world economy may take and their potential effects on Latin America and the Caribbean. Scenarios are constructed employing a modeling exercise that captures the trade, financial and other linkages between the region and the rest of the world. While vulnerabilities remain and external shocks have been and remain critical, the region enjoys many strengths and has developed a growing arsenal of policy tools. What is the balance of vulnerabilities versus strengths? How can countries address the existing vulnerabilities?